Christian Conservative Christian "Independent"

I'm an evangelical Christian, member of the CPC, but presently & unjustly exiled to wander the political wilderness.
All opinions expressed here are solely my own.

Saturday, March 10, 2007

Election Rumors... Soon?

Word on the street (or, at least in some of the backrooms... or so I hear... thirdhand...) is that the Liberals are going to drop the House end of March, or first couple weeks of April.

This is, of course, just a rumour... but one that seems to fit the facts. Feel free to debate and discuss.

In other news... things have been quiet on this little old blog, been busy as a bee. Right in the middle of a massive system change at work all this weekend... moving from two overworked six year old Windows 2000 servers to eight brand new Windows 2003 R2 servers. In the process of moving the data over today, and ensuring the permissions are correct. Lots of fun. It's been really cool though... it's my first time ever building an entire infrastucture from scratch. So far, so good, only one or two minor bumps. We'll see how it goes today. Monday is going to be loads of fun, that's when we re-setup the vast majority of our users. Also Tuesday, though things are on track to only have a couple of users left by then.

It's shaping up to be a busy rest of the week too. Midweek, a bunch of us are having lunch with a "VIP" here in the riding, and then on the weekend, I'm in Toronto for some "training". Then, we're right into the Nomination meeting for our local CPC candidate... I'm helping in various ways at that, which is why there have been no candidate endorsements here. I'm trying to remain pretty neutral, so I can help out the eventual winner more effectively when the writ gets dropped... which, as I indicated above, may be sooner than most people realize.

That's all that's up with me... that is, of course, assuming that you care. ;-)

Well, I'm headed back to work to do some more data moves... you all behave yourselves in the comments while I'm gone.

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  • At Sat. Mar. 10, 01:35:00 p.m. EST, Anonymous jgriffin said…

    The Conservatives want the election, not the opposition. Harper has them by the dangley bits and they know it. If an election is called this spring, and I think it will be, Harper will most likely win a majority. Dion, and possibly Layton and Dueceppe, will have new knife collections stick out of their backs.

  • At Sat. Mar. 10, 04:16:00 p.m. EST, Anonymous ryan;-P said…

    Why would the Liberals be plotting to defeat the gov't? It couldn't come at a worse time for them, unless they have some sort of secret weapon. If an election is called it'll be because the Conservatives want it, and they'll have to be pretty creative to get one too. Harper promised fixed election dates, and Canadians are cynical about gov'ts calling elections simply for the purposes of securing more power for themselves. We've had 3 elections in 4 years and I don't think many Canadians (aside from us political junkies) want another election anytime soon. I realize the election winds are blowing, but Harper is going to have to be pretty creative and tread pretty softly for this to go down the way he wants it to. If the Liberals really want an election, well I guess that would be in keeping with some of the really bad decisions they've made over the past few months, but the only reason I can think of that they would want an election would be to get ri of Dion asap and replace him with a credible leader.

  • At Sat. Mar. 10, 05:37:00 p.m. EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I think that many Liberals do actually want an election for the purpose of ridding the Dionistas.

    If I was a Liberal who supported Iggy, I would want to go now because it looks like Harper will be a few seats short of a Majority.

    Iggy would love to become leader and then bring Harper down in 2 years when he is ready to beat him.

    If the Liberals wait until next year, and then Harper gets a Majority it will be 5 years until Iggy gets a chance and there will be much more competition to become Leader of the Liberal party.

    I am sure the the Iggy forces are pushing for a spring election.

    Certainly Harper and his people think they will win, but no one that I know who actually knows the numbers is saying with any confidence that a Majority is likely. A Majority is possible - barely - but it is possible and who knows, Harper doesnt actually need 155, he could do alot with 152 seats. Soemone (maybe 2) is bound to crossover at that point, and they will just appoint the speaker from another party.

    Harper needs 30 new seats.

    Harper needs to keep the 125 seats that he currently holds.

    Of the seats that he currently holds, my guess is that about 5 are in jeopardy.

    So he needs to get another 35 to be safe.

    Where will the 35 come from?

    a net gain of 10 in BC? I would say that 8 would be more certain.

    Net gain of 0 in Alberta. We have all the seats here.

    Net gain of 0 in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. We may pick up a couple and we may lode a couple here.

    Net gain of 14 in Ontario? 10 is a safe estimate. 15 is possible but 10-12 is a safer bet.

    Net gain of 4 in Quebec. This includes the Independant coming on with us. If we can get 10 more in Quebec we could do it but I think a net gain of 4 is a safe bet.

    Net gain of 6 down east? I would stick with 4 to be safe.


    BC - 8
    AL - 0
    SASK - 0
    MAN - 0
    ONT - 10
    QC - 4
    EAST - 4

    125 plus a net gain of 22 = 147

    Its close....

    Ontario will have to get 12-15

    BC will have to get 8-10

    Quebec will have to get 5-6 more.

    East will have to get 5-6 more.

    If this happens then we are talking the slimest of Majorities.

    possible but not likely. At least not yet.

  • At Sat. Mar. 10, 05:40:00 p.m. EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    math mistake above...(typo) 26 not 22 but...

    you see where I am heading with this...

  • At Sat. Mar. 10, 05:49:00 p.m. EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Seem to miss the point that Dion is coalescing the left and many people are still frigging scared of Harper so the Ndp & green votes are soft, as well, well quebec, native son, 40 seats for the libs is possible, especially given the latest numbers, Dion is still playing his cards close.

    I really dont see the cons gaining much when the writ is dropped, unless harper has a secret weapon, like a likeable leader.

    Come on guys break it down, still not close to a majority.

    Unless a terrorist attack or something happens to change the channel

  • At Sat. Mar. 10, 08:21:00 p.m. EST, Blogger hunter said…

    Anon at 5:49, It must suck to be a Liberal these days. Noone is scared of PM Harper anymore, except maybe Liberals, and they should be. Dion has been labelled Flipper, he's the one that needs the secret weapon, and his dog Kyoto, won't hunt.

    If the Conservatives are 6 point ahead now, before an election is called, and people see the debates, which Dion will suck at, then, the Conservatives can only go up!

  • At Sat. Mar. 10, 10:51:00 p.m. EST, Anonymous ryan;-P said…

    "If the Conservatives are 6 point ahead now, before an election is called, and people see the debates, which Dion will suck at, then, the Conservatives can only go up!"

    Good point, Dion is brutal whenever he steps infront of a microphone, so far they have pretty much let others do his talking for him. Some bad choices there too, Holland, Goodale for example. Also, we haven't seen it much, but during the Liberal Leadship convo there were glimpses of it. Whenever Dion feels cornered, he freaks out, gets flustered, becomes more incoherant, and honestly he comes off as a bit of a prick. Harper is a great debater, he would wipe the floors with Dion.

  • At Sat. Mar. 10, 11:10:00 p.m. EST, Anonymous Swift said…

    I think everybody is a litle pessamistic here. Many "safe" Liberal seats could go blue in the next election if the following conditions are met:

    1. Dion performs as poorly in the debates as his showing thus far indicates.

    2. The conservative ad campaign is balanced between presenting the platform, and attacking the Liberal record.

    3. The national party does a better job of supporting winnable ridings, including ridings that have a surprisinly strong showing in the early part of the campaign.

    4. Stronger local campaigns in some of the ridings with weaker local EDAs.

    A lot to ask you say? Does anyone doubt number one? There is hope for number two from the apparent success of the recent ads, and the Libs are sure providing enough new ammo. Perhaps national campaign strategests learned a few things from the last election, one can hope anyway. And the improved showing in the last campaign should flush out a few more volunteers in many ridings.

    The result could be a gain of 50 seats outside of Quebec. In Quebec, is the apparent seperatist implosion provincially going to carry over to the federal level, and if so to which party? Could the Conservatives get close to 200 seats?

  • At Sun. Mar. 11, 02:10:00 p.m. EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    you guys are really into the koolaid
    200 seats for harper.


  • At Sun. Mar. 11, 03:56:00 p.m. EDT, Blogger Brian in Calgary said…

    Don't hold back, anonymous 02:10 PM. Tell us how you really feel.

  • At Mon. Mar. 12, 09:29:00 p.m. EDT, Anonymous joe said…

    Does anyone think the libs,nds.bqs are realy that stupid? They all know they have more to lose bringing down the govt than staying in parliment and embarrassing the govt (and themselves in the process).


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