Christian Conservative Christian "Independent"

I'm an evangelical Christian, member of the CPC, but presently & unjustly exiled to wander the political wilderness.
All opinions expressed here are solely my own.

Saturday, May 07, 2011

My CPC Seat Prediction was... 162

And my friends thought I was nuts... who'da thunk I'd guessed TOO LOW. Final result: 167.

Post-Election review hopefully coming early next week, once I've caught up on a few things.

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  • At Sat. May 07, 11:48:00 a.m. EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I made my prediction of 166 seats over at BLY on May 1st.

    The election was like a giant strategic pincer movement against the Liberal as Jack Layton and the NDP ate the Liberals lunch from the left; while PM Stephen Harper ate the Liberals lunch from the right.

    In short, the Liberals managed to burn their own house down. While the Bloc was completely eviscerated, it is telling that Ignatieff couldn't even manage to keep his own seat.

    This election has completely repudiated the old Liberal notion as the 'natural governing party' the one which would keep Quebec in Canada. This false dualism has been firmly rejected by the electorate. To wit see Conrad Black's recent National Post article for a fuller treatment.

    Here is your money quote:

    "Without the tribal vote from Quebec, and the mystique of indispensability, and with no interesting policy ideas, it was a movement waiting to die, as redundant as the separatist Bloc in a federal Parliament. It is inconceivable that Harper did not detect at least some of this opportunity. The Liberals now have no purpose at all, and unless the NDP goes off the charts to the left, Harper will be too agile to leave them any policy or ideological space to make a comeback up the centre of Canadian politics that they long occupied."

    PM Stephen Harper will likely be playing for at least a two term majority, with a well run cohesive government. I could easily see PMSH at the helm for the next 8 years, given some of the proclivity for being gaffe prone out of the NDP shortly after the election.

    Also of note, PMSH has managed a majority without Quebec, and muted the NDP surge in provinces like Ontario and BC which have had some experience with NDP fiscal management.


    Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief

    1st Saint Nicolaas Army
    Army Group “True North”

  • At Sat. May 07, 12:08:00 p.m. EDT, Blogger dmorris said…

    I guess we'll have to take you at your word, your prediction of things past was dead accurate! ;-)

    I predict that in 2010 the Chicago Black Hawks will win the Stanley Cup, as for 2011,I have no idea,probably Boston or Vancouver,check with me again after it's all over.

    My prediction for the 2011 election was: Conservatives: 145-150 seats
    NDP 100
    Liberals 55

    Bloc: all the rest. Didn't think Liz May would win either.

    Now, who's going to win the 2011 Stanley Cup?

  • At Sat. May 07, 12:32:00 p.m. EDT, Blogger burpnrun said…

    I believe the CPC seatcount would have heen higher, had folks been able to read the NDP's constitution, rather than Layton's fairy-tale of what his party was all about!

    Quick Read:

  • At Sat. May 07, 04:45:00 p.m. EDT, Blogger Top Can said…

    Actually, pending a judicial recount in Quebec, that number may come down to....166. Yeah, I know I'm being way too accurate, that's just me.

    And I'm surprised Frank Valeriote survived again...and with an increased margin. After all the campaigning, the Liberals coming in to volunteer for Burke, and your talk about the Italian vote abandoning this guy in droves, and he gets reelected with a stronger vote count. Can you explain that to me?

  • At Sun. May 08, 04:54:00 p.m. EDT, Blogger Christian Conservative said…

    Sure can TopCan... a complete COLLAPSE of the Greens in Guelph. They dropped 7000 votes, and Frank picked up 6000. We picked up 2000+ votes over last time, and the NDP stayed completely stagnant, despite the NDP Wave that surged across the country.

    So it's simple, really... ABC, Strategic Voting. One of the only towns in Canada where that can be effectively pulled off.

    So... they didn't vote FOR Frank, they voted AGAINST a Conservative. Which is why I can sleep just fine over the loss.

  • At Tue. Apr. 10, 04:04:00 p.m. EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Don't drop the soap in prison Andy, er, "Pierre".

    Welcome to the brave new world of mandatory minimum sentences. Someone has to fill all those prison spots.

  • At Sat. May 05, 06:01:00 p.m. EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Saw you on CBC news today Andy. Good thing we have a "tough on crime" government with mandatory minimum sentences now. Enjoy your time in the orange jumpsuit.


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