"Dion en chute libre"

Translation: "Dion in free fall"

Hey, I didn't say it... that was the headline in "Le Journal". Take your pick of which set of numbers to look at... they all say the same thing, from multiple polling firms. (Leger, CROP, and Angus Reid)

Here's the Montreal Gazette's headline: "Quebec polls should ring alarm bells for federal Liberals".

First, a set of Leger numbers, commissioned by Le Devoir:

"A Leger survey in Le Devoir last Tuesday had the Bloc at 36 per cent, the Conservatives at 28 per cent, while the Liberals were at 17 per cent, only four points ahead of the NDP at 13 per cent.

Among francophone voters, who determine the outcome of 50 ridings outside the Montreal region, the Liberals dropped to 13 per cent, trailing the NDP at 14 per cent, while the Bloc was at 40 per cent and the Conservatives at 26 per cent. This means the Liberals wouldn't even be competitive in any of those 50 seats, except perhaps in the Gatineau and the Eastern Townships.

Interestingly, the Conservatives led the Liberals by 35 to 31 per cent among non-francophones, obviously including anglophone voters in the Liberal fortress of the West Island. This is a stunning development, and ought to be ringing major alarm bells in the Liberal Party. The Conservatives ahead, or even competitive, on the West Island? Who knew? This means if the Conservatives can recruit some star candidates on the West Island, they will actually be in the game."

Now from CROP in La Presse:

"A CROP poll in La Presse last Wednesday had the Bloc and Conservatives tied at 28 per cent, with the Liberals at 20 per cent, followed by the NDP at 15 per cent.

Among francophones, CROP had the Bloc at 33 per cent, the Conservatives at 29 per cent, and the Liberals at 13 per cent, again, not even in the race outside Montreal."

Now, the second set of Leger numbers, this time for Le Journal de Montreal:

"Leger had another poll on Monday of this week, this time for Le Journal de Montreal, reporting a slight improvement for the Liberals over the previous week, with the Bloc at 35 per cent, the Conservatives at 29 per cent, the Liberals at 20 per cent and the NDP at 12 per cent. The downside of the upside is that the Liberals are still in the teens among francophone voters, and only the non-francophone vote enables them to hit 20 per cent.

As for Dion, his leadership numbers were captured in Le Journal's banner headline: "Dion en chute libre." (Dion in free fall.) Asked who would make the best prime minister, 36 per cent of Quebecers replied Stephen Harper, 16 per cent said Gilles Duceppe, 16 per cent said Jack Layton, while only 12 per cent chose Dion. (Nationally, the numbers were no better for Dion, who scored 13 per cent to Harper's 34 per cent as best PM)."

And a third set of Leger numbers, a week old, again for Le Devior:

"The previous week for Le Devoir, Leger asked another version of the leadership question: "Which leader most deserves your confidence?" Duceppe nearly doubled his score to 30 per cent (since he's never going to be prime minister people don't see him as one), with Harper at 28 per cent, Layton at 16 per cent, and Dion at 13 per cent."

And finally, a deeper examination of the Angus Reid numbers I posted about today...

"Also, Quebeckers appear to already believe that Dion is not a good leader, no matter what the ad says. While fewer Quebeckers (11%) than in any other region say their opinion of Dion worsened after watching the ad, over three-in-five from Quebec (61%) say they do not believe Dion is a leader."

Just in case you didn't catch that... 61% OF QUEBECOIS, ALMOST TWO THIRDS, AGREE THAT STEPHANE DION IS NOT A LEADER.

The Gazette sums it up this way:

"The point is, it doesn't matter how you ask the question, Dion is mired in the teens. And this, as the leader of a national party that is to Canadian politics as McDonald's is to fast food - the dominant brand in the space."

Humm... could it be because many Canadians, even in Quebec, agree with the following statement?

"Stephane Dion is not a leader"

Nah... must be something else...

h/t to "On Liberty"