Christian Conservative Christian "Independent"

I'm an evangelical Christian, member of the CPC, but presently & unjustly exiled to wander the political wilderness.
All opinions expressed here are solely my own.

Thursday, January 07, 2010

That EKOS Poll on Proroguing

You gotta love how much the media and the Opposition is jumping all over the most recent EKOS poll, asking specifically about the Prorogue. They're saying "Canadians are outraged".

Really? That's not how I read the data... take a look for yourself at this KEY section of the poll:

Now, let's delve down into the nuts and bolts, shall we?

First of all, it's a pretty good split in terms of Party lines... with just 14% of identified CPC supporters saying they strongly oppose the move (37 people in all), and 17% (or 45 people) saying they somewhat oppose it. Now, my gut is that a solid 80-90% of these folks are going to come back to the fold come election time, so that's not a HUGE issue to me. However, take a CLOSER look at the other parties numbers... in the STRONGLY SUPPORT category? LPC 4% of 205, NDP 7% of 83, Green 3.5% of 74, BQ 5% of 48. And the SOMEWHAT SUPPORT numbers? Average of 12% of each of the other Parties. COME AGAIN? Liberals and NDP, and even Bloc supporters, SUPPORTING the Prorogue? In fact, the STRONGLY OPPOSED segment in all three major Coalition partners only averages around 60%.

Translation? Partisan tempest in a teapot.

The only number that's any cause of concern WHATSOEVER is the 40% STRONGLY OPPOSED amongst UNDECIDEDS. However, with that block only totaling 77 respondents, and 26% of them providing no answer at all, that 40% translates into only 31 people. The 24.2% UNDECIDED who only SOMEWHAT OPPOSE? That means it's not a ballot box issue for them, and they're still easily winnable with a good Budget and solid platform.

All in all, I'd say this poll is telling the PM that he made a good move. The public "backlash" that the media is touting just isn't there, though we'll have to see how things pan out over the next few weeks. And if the rumours I hear are true, and we're going to have 5 new Senators named tomorrow, then this issue gets pushed even further on to the back burner.

So here's the transcript of this whole affair, in terms of what Harper just told Iggy... CHECK, YOUR MOVE.

Of course, there's one more thing that's been rattling around in the back of my mind with these numbers... those 33 of 205 Liberals who said they were STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT SUPPORT the Prorogue of Parliament? You've got to wonder how many of those people are Rae supporters...

Just a note, may not be available to post comments tonight, so don't go crying "censorship!" and all, okay Libs?

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8 Comments:

  • At Thu. Jan. 07, 08:46:00 p.m. EST, Blogger CanadianSense said…

    Timing is very important. If you examine the Polls at height of H1N1 "crisis" vs early or late.

    Same with Colvin before rebuke by Generals and others.

    The Media prefer to cherry pick and highlight the worst snapshots to amplify the negative frame.

    Negative Sells.

     
  • At Thu. Jan. 07, 09:02:00 p.m. EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Great post I always look to your blog for the numbers

    fh

     
  • At Thu. Jan. 07, 10:14:00 p.m. EST, Blogger Saro said…

    Thats not what CBC had on its front page. Weird.

    http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/01/07/ekos-poll-prorogue.html

     
  • At Thu. Jan. 07, 10:33:00 p.m. EST, Blogger Anon1152 said…

    Was that the only question, and were those the only possible answers? If so, I think there should be another option, beyond "no response".

    How about "Am I supposed to know what that means"? Or something along those lines. Perhaps: "I want to know more about proroguing, it's history, the circumstances, etc."

     
  • At Fri. Jan. 08, 04:28:00 a.m. EST, Blogger Rob said…

    No matter how you read the poll, it's true that Canadians are outraged, since 60% of them strongly oppose it. Whether it will affect election results is a completely different matter of course.

    But is that all this is about? Winning elections? Shouldn't we be asking ourselves if this is really a good thing for the government (regardless of who is in power) to do if so many Canadians oppose it?

     
  • At Sat. Jan. 09, 02:19:00 a.m. EST, Blogger Anon1152 said…

    I've been thinking about this more... [Sorry].

    I don't think that you need to worry (necessarily) about people coming or not coming "back to the fold". If they already say they will vote conservative, they have already said they are in the fold.

    A concern with (or opposition to) Prorogation does not mean that they have become your enemy. Sometimes one's critics, even (or perhaps especially) one's harshest critic's, are one's enemies.*

    Similarly, I think that it would be a mistake to think that the few non-conservatives who favour prorogation are "in the [i.e., your] fold." I'm not in favour of prorogation... but must admit that periodically, I feel relieved when our lawmakers are NOT busy making laws.

    I heard Andrew Coyne the other day say that people weigh all sorts of different things when making decisions... he this more eloquently than me... But I think he's right. We shouldn't assume that the "scandal of the day" will necessarily (or even should necessarily) affect someone's vote come election time. My worry is that politicians think it will...

    An even bigger fear of mine: that individual citizens will start thinking in the same way.

    Though perhaps from your perspective, it should be more worrisome if the party leadership starts thinking that way.

    Harper is accused (at least, among people I know) of being "Machiavellian". But Machiavelli had a strong admiration for Ancient Rome. And he said that the divisions within the Roman Empire (the Republicanism that the United States supposedly tried to emulate) that were thought to be a source of weakness, were actually its greatest strength.

    -Anon1152


    P.S.
    Do you have an email address? I sent an email once to an @christianconservative.ca address but am worried that it was the wrong one... If you do not post this, but give me a sign of some sort, I can repost this without the P.S.... Or not repost at all




    *
    Random observation that I can't convincingly support with evidence right now: there seems to be far more plurality of views within the Jewish world, or even just Israel, than there is in the Islamic world or the Arabic world... but I think the Jewish world is stronger for it.**

    **
    Second Random Observation: I think this has more to do with leadership, international relations, and the media than "regular" people.

     
  • At Sat. Jan. 09, 11:18:00 a.m. EST, Blogger Christian Conservative said…

    cc{at}christianconservative[dot]ca should do the trick... put your blog name Anon1152 in the subject line, so I can keep an eye out for it.

     
  • At Fri. Jan. 15, 12:50:00 p.m. EST, Anonymous Big Bad said…

    Now that the new polls have come out it is interesting that the MSM is reporting that the Liberals are gaining on the Conservatives. But the Liberals haven't gained anything, the Conservatives have just gone down in the polls.
    Funny how that gets reported, eh?

     

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