How low can Iggy go?
harperismyhomeboy points out comments made by Paul Wells, reminding everyone that Iggy's AWFUL numbers in today's CROP poll were collected PRIOR to this week's Quebec Liberal meltdown.
So, I guess that begs the question... once the implosion factor is accounted for, how low will Iffy's numbers go? The current CROP poll puts the Iggy at 26%... a mere two points higher than Dion's dismal 24% from last year's election. Do I have any takers?
I say he'll at least best (worst?) Dion's numbers by a point... 23% is my guess. My "only in my wildest dreams" number? 21%
Any LOWER than that, and look for Jack to suddenly get a little more bold... forcing Iggy to back down, and there'll no going to the polls until at least May 2010.
UPDATE: Finally, someone agrees with my analysis from the other day... Jack, it's now or never! There's NO WAY he's going to have a better opening than he has right now.
So, I guess that begs the question... once the implosion factor is accounted for, how low will Iffy's numbers go? The current CROP poll puts the Iggy at 26%... a mere two points higher than Dion's dismal 24% from last year's election. Do I have any takers?
I say he'll at least best (worst?) Dion's numbers by a point... 23% is my guess. My "only in my wildest dreams" number? 21%
Any LOWER than that, and look for Jack to suddenly get a little more bold... forcing Iggy to back down, and there'll no going to the polls until at least May 2010.
UPDATE: Finally, someone agrees with my analysis from the other day... Jack, it's now or never! There's NO WAY he's going to have a better opening than he has right now.
Labels: His Royal Iggyness, Liberals, Quebec
posted by Christian Conservative @ 5:43 p.m.
5 Comments:
At Wed Sep 30, 06:31:00 p.m. EDT,
Anonymous said…
There is often a wide margin of error in Quebec polling numbers.I think though that 23% is about right.
Layton should consider forcing an election. Not only because of the Lib meltdown in Que. but given the stunning comments about the Toronto Libs controlling the Quebec agenda there must be some animosity in both places. Don't forget too, the Libs. wear this election.
At Wed Sep 30, 11:25:00 p.m. EDT,
Blues Clair said…
Ignatieff can probably go as low as... Harper's dismal Quebec numbers.
At Thu Oct 01, 04:31:00 a.m. EDT,
tori said…
They polled 1000 people in Quebec.
national polls poll that amount, spread over the entire country, making the provincial numbers have bigger MOE.
But when you have 1000 respondents within 1 province? The MOE is approx +-3%.
At Thu Oct 01, 06:39:00 a.m. EDT,
L said…
Mulcair might be "for" an election sooner rather than later. Jack probably prefers next spring, as he will gain profile for being, ostensibly, the official opposition. In any event, I am VERY happy that the PM will be at the Olympics.
At Thu Oct 01, 08:53:00 a.m. EDT,
Bert said…
I would be willing to have an election NOW if it meant a Conservative majority. Then, we could pass a law (bill, ammendmant, whatever) saying that a federal party needs to run candidates in ALL ridings.
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