The Economist: "A winter of Liberal discontent"

This is the same magazine who gave to us the "Mr. Dithers" moniker. Enjoy.

A winter of Liberal discontent
Apr 19th 2007 | OTTAWA
From The Economist print edition

The Liberals' new leader fails to boost the party's flagging fortunes

WHEN Stéphane Dion won the leadership of Canada's Liberals last December, the party faithful knew he had his faults: a poor command of English, a reputation for being inflexible and no real appetite for the cut and thrust of political battle. But with the opinion polls at that time showing the party within striking distance of Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government, Liberals were confident that even an imperfect leader could topple the Tories and restore them to their rightful place in charge of Canada, which they had run for more than a dozen years until 2006.

Almost five months after choosing their new leader, that confidence has evaporated, and many Liberals are questioning whether they picked the right man. The expected boost in voter support has not come about. Indeed, the most recent poll shows that 42% of voters deem Mr Harper the best national leader and a mere 17% back Mr Dion. The Liberals' only consolation is that the Conservatives' comfortable lead is not yet big enough to assure them a parliamentary majority in the event of a new election. But that is thin comfort. The unhappiness inside Liberal ranks burst into the open last weekend when a former prime-ministerial spokesman, Ray Heard, told the Toronto Star, Canada's bestselling newspaper, that he supported a move to dump Mr Dion “before it's too late”.

That outburst was triggered by a peculiar deal Mr Dion made with Elizabeth May, the leader of the Green Party. He promised not to run a Liberal candidate against her in the Nova Scotia constituency where she would otherwise stand only an outside chance of winning the Greens their first seat. In return, Ms May promised not to run a Green candidate against the Liberal leader in his safe Montreal constituency. Mr Dion, a former environment minister, portrayed the deal as a non-partisan gesture designed to give the increasingly popular green agenda more prominence. But, as bewildered Liberals pointed out, their own party gained nothing, and Mr Dion had made it look as though only a fringe party was entitled to care about the environment. The deal was all the stranger given Mr Dion's own reputation as an ardent green, albeit in a party that did little for the environment during almost 13 years in power.

A few days earlier, the Liberals had lost one of their most glamorous politicians. Belinda Stronach, whose wealth, looks and romances made her the closest thing the party had to a celebrity, declared that she was leaving politics to return to Magna International, a car-parts company controlled by her father. Though derided by many as an opportunist—she left the Conservatives two years ago after unsuccessfully contesting the party leadership—Ms Stronach attracted attention, money and votes to a party in need of all three.

The Liberals' malaise seems to go deeper than one miscalculation by Mr Dion over green politics and the loss of a high-profile MP. A further 14 of the 103 Liberals who won parliamentary seats in the January 2006 federal election have likewise decided not to stand again. This comes on top of three defections: two to the Conservatives and a third who has chosen to sit as an independent. A changing of the guard is no bad thing in a political party, but when quite so many of its MPs decide to abandon national politics it suggests they do not expect imminent re-election and a job in government.

It is too early to write Mr Dion off. Jean Chrétien went through a similar rough patch when he became Liberal leader in 1990, but went on to win three successive general elections, starting with the slaughter of 1993 in which the Conservatives were scythed down to two seats. Mr Dion could still turn opinion by exploiting a reputation for integrity and intelligence. This, however, will take time that he may not have. Mr Harper is eager to convert his minority government into a majority. If his poll numbers edge higher, it will not be long before he calls a new election—whether the Liberals are ready or not.