Christian Conservative Christian "Independent"

I'm an evangelical Christian, member of the CPC, but presently & unjustly exiled to wander the political wilderness.
All opinions expressed here are solely my own.

Saturday, December 02, 2006

My Convention Post

4:15pm - Back, was out for a bit. Rae is DONE, and the 4th ballot just closed. It's all over but the crying... now, we're just waiting for the results.

1:40pm - Iggy, upon his return from the bathroom (you had to be watching Global, hilarious) confirmed that talks are underway with Rae... but no details.

Voting on the third ballot is over, results should be in shortly.

12:20pm - Kennedy has moved to Dion. Warren is calling it for Dion.

This is a NIGHTMARE for Rae... it's all but over for him. However, Global is scrumming with Rae... apparently, some of Kennedy's people are moving to him, or so he's spinning.

If things hold the way they are, Rae will be the bottom of the three. How his delegates split will determine the outcome.

Or, will there be a shock on the floor and will Rae hang in there? Or, will Iggy look at his odds against Dion, realize he can't win, and instead of allowing Rae to get dropped off the ballot, will he withdraw and ask his people to back Rae? (if the rules will allow him to do that) Or will Rae back his old pal Iggy, and the old elite with Iggy defeat Dion, who has a lot of the new blood behind him? Of course, if some of Kennedy's left turns instead to Rae, then it's Iggy that's done, and Rae and Dion move on.

Who knows how this is going to play out? Stay tuned...

12:00 NOON - 2nd ballot results are in.
1481 - Iggy
1132 - Rae
974 - Dion
884 - Kennedy
219 - Dryden

Dryden will be dropped from the ballot, and Kennedy will go to Dion. That leaves a 3 horse race, and the loser of that ballot will be dropped off.

It's anyone's game now. If Dion and Kennedy do merge, it's a nightmare for Rae, as it will be Iggy vs. Dion on the final ballot. I'm surprised, truth be told. Things don't look good for Rae right now... Global is reporting that 12 delegates from Dryden just went to Iggy.

But Dryden himself just went to Rae! Okay, now that changes everything! Add 150 of Dryden's to Rae, and that brings him really close to Iggy, but not close enough if Dion and Kennedy merge... they become the frontrunners, if they deliver the majority of their delegates. But if the "Stop Rae" movement is in full swing, some may move from Dion and/or Kennedy to Iggy.

Man, talk about a wild ride!

11:49am - I'm making a call. Global just had the camera closeup on Iggy and his wife, and he leaned over to whisper in her ear. When he stopped talking, she looked up at him, quiet expression on her face, and nodded slowly with a smile... almost a knowing, affirming kind of nod, one you do when a loved one has just informed you of a difficult decision, and you knowingly are giving your approval.


11:39am - Iggy and Rae just pulled the same stunt... as a counter move, the pundits are saying. I'm wondering, if Dion is ahead of Kennedy, and they merge, if one of the two, Iggy and Rae, due to their longstanding friendship, will one drop out and support the other?

11:30am - Kennedy and Dion posing together for photos and a scrum... no comments on any decisions, they are being very clear on that. Kennedy quote, "We're hearing what the people on the floor are saying... we're just saying hello and having a little fun here." My guess is that their organizers called each other up, and arranged that little handshake to get the media over there, create a bigger buzz, which will help whichever one stays on after this ballot. Steal the spotlight a bit from Iggy and Bob.

11:28am - What do they say? A picture is worth a thousand words? The next Rick Mercer caption contest, perhaps? From CTV...

11:24am - Rumour... Dryden to Iggy? That would be HUGE.

10:41am - Warren just reported on Global that a senior Liberal insider just e-mailed his Blackberry, with a rumour that some of Kennedy's supporters, if he places fourth on the second ballot, will move to Iggy, due to fear of what Bob Rae and his NDP past will do to their chances in Ontario in the next election.

NOOOOOO!!! On two counts... 1) it will prove my predictions wrong, and 2) we won't have Bob to fight next time around!

10:15am - I'll be posting my thoughts throughout the day at the top here, and will move the previous comments down as I go. I'll time-stamp them as I go, so you can keep things straight... that is, if anyone's reading, or even cares. ;-)

I'm going to make a call here... Iggy's DONE. Bob and Dion are showing the momentum right now, but I'm still going to go with what I said months ago... Dion has the best shot of this thing. But I still relish the idea of going up against Rae for the next Federal election... the Grits will be asking themselves "What were we thinking?" come election day!

Or, as we'll pose the question to Ontario, "Do you REALLY want another Rae Day?"


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