Christian Conservative Christian "Independent"

I'm an evangelical Christian, member of the CPC, but presently & unjustly exiled to wander the political wilderness.
All opinions expressed here are solely my own.

Thursday, September 02, 2010

My prediction... Off to the polls we go

Based on today's EKOS numbers, I think the chances of a fall election just jumped SIGNIFICANTLY, especially with some seat projections predicting a Liberal minority.

This being the first glimmer of "hope" for the Liberals in some FIVE YEARS, I'm betting they're not going hesitate to pull the plug. With the projections showing gains for the Bloc, and only marginal potential losses for the NDP, look for the swords to cross as the House returns from the summer break.

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  • At Thu. Sep. 02, 03:53:00 p.m. EDT, Blogger The_Iceman said…

    EKOS has a tendency to produce outliers. Guaranteed the Greens will absolutely not get 13% if an election were held today.

    There will not be an election this fall.

  • At Thu. Sep. 02, 04:36:00 p.m. EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    with municipal elections in Ontario and manitoba this fall taking away volunteers and money , its extremely doubtful there be one this fall and liberal internal numbers had cpc 35 to lib 29 ( these were published in a globe and mail article just this week ) so its doubtful the ekos poll is 100 % accurate , it was likely produced for its cbc masters who wanted such a poll in the first place. i also think its clear Frank Graves is a cpc hater and his polls are becoming rather annoying

  • At Thu. Sep. 02, 04:39:00 p.m. EDT, Blogger MIkhael said…

    This is both a danger, and an opportunity.

    The danger is that Harper has blown it with one too many "small hill to die on" - the census being the tipping point, but many other little things that were stupid battles we shouldn't have had and cut into the good will the Canadians had for the CPC.

    The opportunity is that the Liberal gains are probably paper thin, but enough to make them think they want an election, and then a campaign will emerge that contrasts an able and proven leader like Harper vs a zero like Ignatief, could result in the majority we need.

    What Harper and his team did with the G20 and in foreign policy in the past couple of years has been very impressive. It pains me to no end to see the credit for this work lost in a sea of BS around the census, the registry, etc etc.

    Between now and then, though, the CPC has to stop shooting itself in the foot with stupid stuff. The census business really was an unnecessary battle, and I predict the plan to spend billions on jails will end up even more damaging in an election, because it really cuts to the credibility of the CPC as a fiscally responsible party.

    Govern competently for all Canadians, and we will be re-elected. Play petty partisan games, and we open the door for the Liberals.

  • At Thu. Sep. 02, 04:40:00 p.m. EDT, Blogger bertie said…

    Since when did anything produced by CBC get to be believable.???Here is a better one that is more believable.Everyone i talk to is voting Conservative.Not one person i have talked to this summer is voting Liberal.

  • At Thu. Sep. 02, 04:54:00 p.m. EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I want an election this fall but it won't happen based on any poll published by Frank Graves. His polls seem to have the same methodology that caused the Chinese to over estimate fishing stocks. The scientists told their bosses what they wanted to hear instead of what they needed to hear.

  • At Thu. Sep. 02, 05:10:00 p.m. EDT, Blogger kursk said…

    I won't look at any poll till an election is called; if the defacto coalition runs as one, the result will be the biggest leftist defeat in Canadian electoral history.

  • At Thu. Sep. 02, 06:13:00 p.m. EDT, Anonymous Sean M said…

    Personally I would welcome a fall election, but considering this particular poll was done by Librano operative Frank Graves, or Gravy as he likes to be called, and the fact that this was a CBC poll, leaves me suspect on it's accuracy. I believe this poll will be used to further whatever negative narrative the CBC is currently propagating against the PM and the Conservative's eg. "censusgate" "long gun registrygate" etc.

  • At Thu. Sep. 02, 06:28:00 p.m. EDT, Anonymous Joanne BLY said…

    I know what you're doing and I hope they take the bait. ;)

  • At Thu. Sep. 02, 07:38:00 p.m. EDT, Blogger maryT said…

    If the polls are tied and they are making a big fuss about the %age that wont vote for PMSH, isn't that the same %age that wont vote for liberals. 3 seats for the green, bet they don't get 1.
    At least if they do it wont be lizzie. Graves says the PM would get 100 seats but fails to tell where he will lose 44 seats. We don't have that many in the Atlantic provinces, and I doubt if BC will go liberal or ndp, and we only have 11 in Quebec. So that leave Ontario, and I don't see that happening. It would be great to see iggy defeated, without qualifying for a pension.
    And what did Senator Finley overhear on that plane.

  • At Thu. Sep. 02, 08:52:00 p.m. EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Just got an automated call from Ekos for the next poll. By the way the Conservative party seems to be number 5 on their choices.

    Do they always do polls in the middle of the day when most Conservatives are working? Or Sunday morning when some of us are in church?

    Guess my vote will skew it the Conservative way...

  • At Fri. Sep. 03, 07:03:00 p.m. EDT, Anonymous jgriffin316 said…

    It's been assumed for a while that the Liberals will pull the plug before the new seats are added in Ontario, Alberta and B. C. The locations of the new seats are in areas with strong conservative representation.

  • At Fri. Sep. 03, 07:58:00 p.m. EDT, Anonymous MadTrucker said…

    The first number I always check in any poll is what they say the Greenies are doing. If the claim is made that they're above 7%, then I know that this is a push-poll and that the other numbers are likely wishful thinking (or just pure baloney) too.

    The Greens have never come close to breaking out of the single digits in the only polls that count - elections.

  • At Sun. Sep. 05, 02:59:00 p.m. EDT, Anonymous Frank Q. said…

    Can this really be true? I think not.
    Even Lieberals are secretly happy with the way things are going.

    One other thing, once a campaign begins, the Prime Minister will have Iffy for breakfast.

    The Coalition question will be a winner.

  • At Sun. Sep. 05, 11:46:00 p.m. EDT, Blogger Anon1152 said…

    "Just got an automated call from Ekos for the next poll. By the way the Conservative party seems to be number 5 on their choices."

    I thought it was standard practice to rotate the choices to ensure greater randomization/fairness. Though I suppose the only way to know for sure would be to check with EKOS. Or to check EKOS. Which isn't the same thing.

    Phone polls are an extremely limited way to gauge public opinion. I answered one of those calls once. The first question was: do you agree with the government's handling of the bailout for the automobile industry. I asked "which government". Of course, the computer wasn't listening. I hung up.

    Even with better specificity in the questions, or with human questioners, standard phone polls give us a view of a limited number of Canadians unreflective opinions...

    If people were first forced to discuss the questions with fellow citizen, some of whom they disagree with, and if they had access to good information, we would have very different results. Results that could perhaps be called democratic.

    I'm not holding my breath.

  • At Thu. Sep. 09, 06:36:00 a.m. EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I don't believe that there will be an election until the number of seats have been adjusted upward. A quick examination will soon reveal that most of these will not go to the Liberals - probably to the Conservatives and the NDP. Also, the government probably wants the Auditor General's favourable report on stimulus spending to be published. That way, the Conservatives can shove the results right up the Liberal's rosy red rear. Remember last spring when they complained that all stimulus spending was going to Conservative ridings. Hope the PMO doesn't let the MSM try to pretend that this is unremarkable.


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