Christian Conservative Christian "Independent"

I'm an evangelical Christian, member of the CPC, but presently & unjustly exiled to wander the political wilderness.
All opinions expressed here are solely my own.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Analysis of By-election results look even WORSE for Iffy's Liberals

Had a few moments today, so I thought I'd take a closer look at the by-election results from last night. By taking a deeper look at the raw numbers, things look even bleaker for the Liberals than I first thought!

Here's the raw data of the total votes cast, compiled from all four ridings:

Total CPC votes - 33850
Total NDP votes - 23203
Total Bloc votes - 19726
Total Liberal votes - 13995
Total Green votes - 2897
Total OTHER - 1448
TOTAL BALLOTS CAST - 95119

Here's your quick method calculation to get the percentage...
Party Votes / Total Ballots = Percentage of Vote

Total CPC votes - 33850 - 35.6%
Total NDP votes - 23203 - 24.4%
Total Bloc votes - 19726 - 20.7%
Total Liberal votes - 13995 - 14.7%
Total Green votes - 2897 - 3.0%
Total OTHER - 1448 - 1.5%
TOTAL BALLOTS CAST - 95119 (total is 99.9% due to rounding)

Do you see what I see? Yea, I see some SERIOUS trouble for the Liberal Party of Canada... they collected LESS THAN HALF THE NUMBER OF VOTES THAT THE TORIES COLLECTED... in fact, nearly a full 20,000 FEWER! Put another way, the Liberals only collected a total of 14.7% of all the ballots cast, polling at a distant FOURTH PLACE overall last night. In fact, they even collected almost 10,000 FEWER votes than Jack Layton's New Democrats! (and almost 6000 less than the Quebec only Bloc!)

Now, of course, some Liberals (cause let's face it, only the Liberals are trying desperately to spin these numbers in any postive light they can) will say my numbers are skewed because the Bloc was only running in two of the four ridings... okay then, let's pull out the Bloc totals, shall we?

New calculation...
Total Votes Cast - Total Bloc Votes = Total "UnBloced" Votes
With me so far? The total "UnBloced" votes last night was 75393.
(95119 - 19726 = 75393)

NATIONAL TOTALS (in %) WITHOUT BLOC
CPC - 44.9%
NDP - 30.1%
Liberals - 18.6%
Green - 3.8%

YIKES... the CPC got 44.9% vs. Iffy's 18.6% nationally?!?! Any way you slice it, it was a BAD night for Iffy's Liberals last night. Or, put another way... what do I think the chances are of a Federal election before next summer?

I'd say somewhere around 18.6%.

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8 Comments:

  • At Tue Nov 10, 05:31:00 PM EST, Anonymous rightful said…

    your end analysis is bang on - and your numbers are startling - Mr Donolo has some real hard work to do - one wonders if the leader is actually going to try, or if the attack dogs will pick another "Messiah" to try and cover over all the cracks

     
  • At Tue Nov 10, 05:57:00 PM EST, Blogger maryT said…

    Should we get ready for Jack to move into Storneway after the next election. Poor lizzie, what was her reaction today. Greens should save their money next time around. Oh, I forgot, she has said everything will be put into getting her into the house.

     
  • At Tue Nov 10, 06:05:00 PM EST, Blogger Hinchey's Store said…

    Those numbers look great. The only bad part is that those numbers are percentages of actual votes cast. How many people voted that could have? Between the 4 ridings, somewhere around 32%.
    However, still great numbers - would just like to see that translate in the next general election...

     
  • At Tue Nov 10, 06:37:00 PM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Compare it to the last election in those 4 ridings for the full context

     
  • At Tue Nov 10, 09:38:00 PM EST, Blogger The_Iceman said…

    With all due respect, we are talking about a very small sample size. I did my own math analysis and reached the similar "great news" for Tories conclusion, but let's not get too carried away.

     
  • At Tue Nov 10, 11:28:00 PM EST, Blogger Brian in Calgary said…

    Here are the results of the same four ridings from the last election:

    Bloc --- votes 43214
    CPC --- votes 40633
    NDP --- votes 34689
    Ind #1 - votes 27303
    Lib ---- votes 25236
    Green - votes 6498
    Other - votes 1888

    TOTAL votes = 179,461


    National Totals (%) with Bloc:

    Bloc 24.1%
    CPC 22.6%
    NDP 19.3%
    Ind #1 15.2%
    Lib 14.1%
    Green 3.6%
    Other 1.1%


    National Totals (%) without Bloc

    CPC 29.8%
    NDP 25.5%
    Ind#1 20.0%
    Lib 18.5%
    Green 4.8%
    Other 1.4%


    I indicate Ind#1 (who, obviously, is Bill Casey) because "Other" includes, among other candidates a second independent.

     
  • At Fri Nov 13, 06:05:00 PM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    These numbers also show that, if you aggregate the votes for the Greens, Liberals, NDP an Bloc, over 62% of voters voted for parties that are to the left of the CPC. This more or less mirrors the results of the past two federal elections. The only significant changes are in the non-Conservative vote.

    *

    I take issue with your "unBloc-ing" strategy for two reasons.

    1. From a normative point of view, I think that it amounts to telling nearly 20 000 citizens that, since they voted for a party we don't approve of, their votes do not or should not count. (Note that this applies to over 50% of the voters in Hochelaga). I don't think this was your intention. I'm sure that most of us, on reflection, believe that every vote should "count", in some sense, no matter who that vote supports.

    2. From an empirical point of view, I think that your mathematical strategy is questionable. You write that: "some liberals may say the numbers are skewed because the Bloc was only running in two of the four ridings." I hope that I can escape being labelled a liberal if I point out that your attempt to "de-skew" the numbers ends up presenting an even more distorted picture.

    Though it makes sense (in the general Canadian context) to distinguish between the whole of Canada, Quebec, and the rest of Canada (outside of Quebec), this is not what you have done. You have only removed VOTES for the Bloc.

    Mathematically speaking, if you want a more accurate (less skewed) picture, you should separate the Quebec ridings from the other Canadian ridings. The Bloc doesn't receive votes outside of Quebec. So to remove ONLY the Bloc votes from the total, and extrapolate to the rest of the country, will seriously distort the results. The apparent "boost" in CPC support is predicated on the elimination of Bloc votes that do not exist anywhere outside of Quebec.

    *

    I am realizing that my accusation in # 1 does not necessarily apply, even in the numbers as you present them in your post. One might suppose that the Bloc voters are not "eliminated"; only that the Bloc (party) is eliminated as a choice--meaning that current Bloc voters would vote for other parties. This would be mathematically and normatively legitimate if you assume that the Bloc votes would be distributed equally among all of the parties. There would be no need to count the if they would not affect the percentages.

    This is a response to my normative criticism, but does not necessarily counter the empirical criticism, since it is unreasonable to assume that all current Bloc voters would choose the CPC as their second choice.

    -Anon1152

    P.S.
    Horrible realization: I have read that Robert Frost defined a liberal as someone who couldn't take his own side in an argument. What does that make me?

    P.P.S.
    I was going to try to run the numbers myself, but math was never my forte. If I'm making any mistakes, please let me know, lest I embarrass myself in the future.

     
  • At Fri Nov 13, 08:43:00 PM EST, Blogger Brian in Calgary said…

    These numbers also show that, if you aggregate the votes for the Greens, Liberals, NDP an Bloc, over 62% of voters voted for parties that are to the left of the CPC.

    Very true. Continuing on the same theme, an even larger percentage (75.6%) voted against NDP candidates, a still larger percentage (85.3%) voted against Liberal candidates, and a still even larger percentage (97.0%) voted against Green candidates.

    I'm sure that most of us, on reflection, believe that every vote should "count", in some sense, no matter who that vote supports.

    I would agree with you. However, in a pluralistic, representative democracy such as we have, there is no way to guarantee that any specific vote will be meaningful in exactly the same way or sense as any other specific vote.

    I was going to try to run the numbers myself, but math was never my forte. If I'm making any mistakes, please let me know, lest I embarrass myself in the future.

    If you did make any math mistakes, they don't seem very significant. Certainly, I don't see where they would affect the points you make.

     

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