Liberals in serious financial trouble after last night
Will post my post-election thoughts later tonight, but I wanted to throw some numbers out there for everyone to consider.
$6,751,781.40(*). That's how much the annual subsidy the Liberal Party will get after posting their lowest numbers in nearly a generation, with just 3,629,990 votes, down 849,425 votes from their 2006 total of 4,479,415.
Contrast that with the $9,681,921.24 the Tories stand to get annualy on top of their own fundraising efforts, which stood somewhere in the neighbourhood of $8,479,902.53 for just the first two quarters of this year alone. Assume that they'll be hauling in somewhere in the $20-$30 million range for the next three years, with no outstanding debts, unlike their Liberal opponents.
You see, the Liberals still have outstanding leadership debts. They had to borrow $2,000,000 earlier in the year just to maintain solvency, at a punishing interest rate of 9%. And thanks to the hints before the campaign from now defeated Liberal MP Garth Turner, we know that this Liberal campaign was heavily financed, likely via loans with a significant interest rate. It will be very interesting to compare the 2008 annual returns in the spring.
What does this all mean? It means exactly what I said it would before the campaign... Mr. Harper has his defacto majority, as the Liberal Party of Canada will be bending over backwards to find ways to avoid triggering an election for at least the next three years.
There will be rumblings that Dion must go, but in the end, I think they'll let him stick around for the time being. They'll use the time to rebuild, to revamp their financial situation, and when things get closer, they'll find a way to have Mr. Dion graciously step down, without causing serious infighting. They'll run a low key and low cost leadership race, crown a new leader, then spend a year raising his (or her) profile in preperation for an election... sometime in 2011 or 2012.
Warren called this one a long time ago when he said something along the lines of, in refering to Mr. Harper, "This guy's going to be Prime Minister for a long time".
* NOTES: I've heard that the per vote funding will be $1.86 per vote after the inflation adjustment from $1.75 in the last election
UPDATE: I see the National Post's Don Martin has similar thoughts on how long this parliament will last.
$6,751,781.40(*). That's how much the annual subsidy the Liberal Party will get after posting their lowest numbers in nearly a generation, with just 3,629,990 votes, down 849,425 votes from their 2006 total of 4,479,415.
Contrast that with the $9,681,921.24 the Tories stand to get annualy on top of their own fundraising efforts, which stood somewhere in the neighbourhood of $8,479,902.53 for just the first two quarters of this year alone. Assume that they'll be hauling in somewhere in the $20-$30 million range for the next three years, with no outstanding debts, unlike their Liberal opponents.
You see, the Liberals still have outstanding leadership debts. They had to borrow $2,000,000 earlier in the year just to maintain solvency, at a punishing interest rate of 9%. And thanks to the hints before the campaign from now defeated Liberal MP Garth Turner, we know that this Liberal campaign was heavily financed, likely via loans with a significant interest rate. It will be very interesting to compare the 2008 annual returns in the spring.
What does this all mean? It means exactly what I said it would before the campaign... Mr. Harper has his defacto majority, as the Liberal Party of Canada will be bending over backwards to find ways to avoid triggering an election for at least the next three years.
There will be rumblings that Dion must go, but in the end, I think they'll let him stick around for the time being. They'll use the time to rebuild, to revamp their financial situation, and when things get closer, they'll find a way to have Mr. Dion graciously step down, without causing serious infighting. They'll run a low key and low cost leadership race, crown a new leader, then spend a year raising his (or her) profile in preperation for an election... sometime in 2011 or 2012.
Warren called this one a long time ago when he said something along the lines of, in refering to Mr. Harper, "This guy's going to be Prime Minister for a long time".
* NOTES: I've heard that the per vote funding will be $1.86 per vote after the inflation adjustment from $1.75 in the last election
UPDATE: I see the National Post's Don Martin has similar thoughts on how long this parliament will last.
posted by Christian Conservative @ 12:05 p.m.
4 Comments:
At Wed Oct 15, 02:13:00 p.m. EDT,
Shawn Abigail said…
So the Liberals will be getting about $1.5M less in subsidy each year. That's going to be tough to recoup. Typically the Left is much better at spending other peoples money than in giving their own money.
This will play out in one of two ways. It is possible that Dion will step down quickly, and the Liberals will run a leadership campaign with sharply limited spending caps. The new guy will then spend the next couple years rebuilding the party and the war chest.
The second possibility is that Dion will stay on, or possible an interim leader will stay on, to be the whipping boy while the party rebuilds. I say the whipping boy, because under no circumstances must he let the Conservative government fall.
As for Harper, he must use his de facto Majority to continue to show that he is not scary. And he must avoid the temptation to crush Danny Williams (as amusing as that would be).
At Wed Oct 15, 08:16:00 p.m. EDT,
Luke Coughey said…
Knowing that political parties are trying to win a position of power to control our country's finances, it should be illegal for them to have any debt whatsoever. How can they think straight in Ottawa if they have millions of dollars over their heads.
At Wed Oct 15, 10:57:00 p.m. EDT,
Top Can said…
I'm surprised you've been so far completely speechless regarding Frank Valeriote's victory in Guelph. After the seemingly hundreds of posts you made regarding the man, how come you're so silent in the wake of his pretty decent 1792 lead.
I guess you're still trapped in a Liberal Ontario riding for another two or more years! Hah!
At Thu Oct 16, 12:00:00 p.m. EDT,
Anonymous said…
It wasn't for lack of an honest effort, though.
Yes, I wanted Gloria to lose, and yes, I got what I wanted, BUT despite how Gloria got the nomination she still received the same level of support the previous candidate did. In fact, the gap between the winner and the Con was closer this time than last. And it most certainly wasn't all Gloria. She had a very hard-working team behind her. They made for quite the formidable opponents indeed
Given the circumstances, I must say I'm impressed.
What else can I say but I gotta give the devil her due ;)
Mike Wisniewski
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