The "Helium Balloon" Bounce

It's my own new term... but however dumb it may sound, I think it's a more accurate description of what's happening in the polls.

Right as I predicted, the polls have tightened up somewhat... we're currently in the 36-38% range, depending on who you refer to. But you remember what has happened to us so far in the polls? We quickly shot up to 41%... then back down to 35%. Then back up to 40-41%... and now back down to around 37%.

Now to my illustration of the helium ballon. I think it's pretty common knowledge that out there, there's a ceiling above which our support won't climb. I think of it like releasing a helium ballon indoors... it rises up, but then bounces off the ceiling. However, it rises again, and bounces off the ceiling again... but with each bounce, the bounce isn't as large. And finally, after three or four bounces, the ballon settles up against the ceiling.

That's what I think the polls are doing, as Canadians get comfortable with a continued Conservative government. Of course, there's always the chance that the ballon will pop... or that it will drift over to a skylight or something where it can go up another few feet above the "ceiling".

Contrast that, of course, with the Liberals... when you hit rock bottom, you bounce there too. Then you fall back down... and the bounce is once again less pronounced, until they finally settle on the bottom.

If you ask me, and my two analogies turn out to be accurate, the timing looks perfect for a perfect storm to brew on Election Day.