Christian Conservative Christian "Independent"

I'm an evangelical Christian, member of the CPC, but presently & unjustly exiled to wander the political wilderness.
All opinions expressed here are solely my own.

Friday, September 12, 2008

A 15 FREAKING POINT LEAD!?!?!?

Okay, I'm an optimist, but either this poll is whack, or something MAJOR is afoot amongst the Canadian electorate.

And it should be noted, that these numbers were taken up until last night... DURING and AFTER our miscues of this week.
Poll suggests Harper could be headed for majority
The Canadian Press
33 minutes ago

OTTAWA — Stephen Harper may be closing in on his coveted majority despite being plagued by a series of miscues and bad news during the first week of the federal election campaign.

A new poll suggests the Conservatives have opened up a commanding 15-point lead over the Liberals, with 41 per cent of respondents supporting the governing party.

Typically, 40 per cent is sufficient to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons.

According to The Canadian Press-Harris Decima survey, the Liberals stood at 26 per cent, the NDP at 14 per cent, the Greens at nine and the Bloc Quebecois at eight.

The poll suggests the Tories have gained ground among key voter groups that have eluded them in the past, and in every region of the country. They took a seven-point lead in Ontario, a 10-point lead in urban centres and a 13-point-lead among women.

"The Conservative momentum has been remarkable," said Harris Decima president Bruce Anderson.
UPDATE: So much for Liberal hopes that this was a rouge poll... EKOS and Nanos numbers both show a similar picture, though Nanos shows the gap between them being smaller than the other two.

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8 Comments:

  • At Fri Sep 12, 01:55:00 PM EDT, Blogger Marc-André Mongeon, M.A said…

    I both love and HATE these kind of polls for the Tories. It's on the one hand good news, but on the other, will this make undecided voters turn to the Liberals (away from the Greens/NDP) who would be " scared " of a Harper majority ? and so soon in the campaign.

     
  • At Fri Sep 12, 02:11:00 PM EDT, Blogger Lore_Weaver said…

    It's tough to gage what's really happening.

    We need two things, a Quebec only poll, and an Alberta only poll.

    1000 people from each, +/- 3.1%

    We need to know what the 41% means. Is there enough Alberta Angst that support there has dropped?

    How much support is there in Quebec?

    What are the Quebec Regional Trends?

    Are the Tories, with a modest Quebec gain of ~5% going to gain 20 seats in La Belle Provence? (sp?)

    None of this is answered with polling at present.

    All we know is 2 things, CPoC support is rising in Quebec, NDP support is rising in BC.

     
  • At Fri Sep 12, 02:12:00 PM EDT, Blogger Guelph First said…

    I wouldn't read much into any poll, they tend to be inaccurate at the best of times and plain wrong at the worst.

    Ignore them, and keep going forward.

    The talent and policies are there to dominate this election, but only one poll matters.

     
  • At Fri Sep 12, 02:15:00 PM EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Is that all? Have you seen the other candidates?

     
  • At Fri Sep 12, 03:36:00 PM EDT, Anonymous Dave Hodson said…

    We don't want to peak too early, so let's shoot for a 25 or 30 point lead on e-day!

    Seriously, we need to be sure that our volunteers don't get too over-confident and relaxed. We need to campaign steadily and stay on message (unlike the idiots in the CPC war room) and work to win as if we were way behind in the polls. We need to make sure that our GOTV teams are on top of things, so that on e-day supporters don't just stay home becasuse the polls show we're going to win and they think there's no point in voting.

     
  • At Fri Sep 12, 09:14:00 PM EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    With apologies to John Cougar Mellencamp ...

    Jack and Dion

    by JC Kelan

    Little ditty about Jack and Dion
    A kid from Quebec et un gar de Lyon
    Jacky wanna be a Kyoto star
    Dion, debutante in a hybrid car

    Suckin’ on tofu dogs, watchin the CBC
    Dion sittin on Jacky’s lap
    Dreams a grit minority
    Jacky say, “Hey Dion,
    I’ll help you get rid of Steve,
    then I’ll sit in your cabinet,
    let me do what I please”

    Chorus:

    Oh yeah, life goes on
    Long after the thrill of voting is gone
    Oh yeah, say life goes on,
    Long after the hope of winning is gone, they walk on

    Jacky sits back and reflects for a moment
    Dion scratches his head and does his best Howard Dean
    “Well you know, Dion, Liz’ll be a problem”
    Dion says, “Jack, she’s already on my team”

    Chorus:

    Oh yeah, life goes on
    Long after the thrill of voting is gone
    Oh yeah, say life goes on,
    Long after the hope of leadin” is gone, they walk on

    Steve’s gonna rock, Steve’s gonna roll
    Let the “Green Shift” pull him up in the polls
    Hold onto power as long as he can
    Change come around real soon
    Steve’s got a majority plan

    Chorus:

    Oh yeah, life goes on
    Long after the thrill of voting is gone
    Oh yeah, say life goes on,
    Long after all the dreamin’ is gone, they walk on

    Little ditty ‘bout Jack and Dion
    two Lefties gettin’ whupped by the neo-con.

     
  • At Sat Sep 13, 11:24:00 AM EDT, Blogger The Christian Heretic said…

    UPDATE: So much for Liberal hopes that this was a rouge poll...

    What's a rouge poll? ;)

     
  • At Sat Sep 13, 11:58:00 AM EDT, Blogger Christian Conservative said…

    LOL... I guess it's one that's not stained with the current bout of Liberal hemoragic fever. ;-)

     

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