Christian Conservative Christian "Independent"

I'm an evangelical Christian, member of the CPC, but presently & unjustly exiled to wander the political wilderness.
All opinions expressed here are solely my own.

Monday, October 02, 2006

The Next Liberal Leader

I've said that Dion or Rae's gonna be the one to win this thing. But Paul Wells makes some really good arguments that due to this weekend's results, Iggy's going to be the last man standing. Who am I to argue with Paul Wells?

Well, I'm going to take one of his points, and use it to support my previous ideas.
But if any of the Second Three believes Ignatieff must be stopped, they need to get out to make it happen.

Since I can't imagine that happening, I suspect Ignatieff will face Stephen Harper at the next election. Which means the NDP will have room to thrive; the new Liberal leader will stand offside his party's base on the central foreign-policy issue of the moment; and no attack against Stephen Harper for militarism or coziness with the Bush White House will hold water.

This is the bed the Liberals made for themselves on the weekend. Now they get to lie in it.
A couple of things here. First, I REALLY hope he's right in this prediction regarding the next election! In my book, a divided, or re-aligned, Liberal Party would be ideal for Canada. It would provide for a true Left, Centre-Left, and Centre-Right lineup, and allow for more realistic and regular back-and-forth changes of the guard in Ottawa, instead of the stagnant Liberal "one-party-rule with brief interuptions" sort of government we've gotten used to.

Second, of the three second-tier candidates, if any of them drop out, I still think it will be Kennedy... and I see him and his supporters going to Rae sooner than I can see them supporting Dion or Iggy. Depending on where the rest of the third-string contenders go, it's anyone's game.

So, unless something big happens, either Iggy or Rae wins. However, keep your eyes open for the "up the middle" play I've been predicting... as I've said before, if a major "Stop Iggy" campaign starts, Rae benefits... if then a "Stop Rae" campaign is fostered, the only one, I think, that will be able to pull it off then is Dion, the only potential dark-horse in this race. He's the only Quebecois, he didn't get tarnished in the JC/PM wars, and he's the only middle-of-the-road second tier candidate, as opposed to frontrunner Iggy on the right, and Rae and Kennedy both on the left. Warren seems to think that Dion's got a shot at this too.
Can Dion really win? Yes, he can. He’s got a great organization, he isn’t a polarizing figure, and everyone respects him. He can win. But Ignatieff is obviously the guy to beat, right now.
So, having said all that, here's my three predictions on the final standings...

Outcome #1 (Kennedy stays in)
(Dion will pick up more 3rd tier candidate supporters than Gerard)

Outcome #2 (Kennedy supports Rae)
Rae (w/Kennedy)

Outcome #3 ("Stop Iggy" and "Stop Rae" movements)
Iggy and Rae (who knows what order they'll come in)

And yes, these three options are ranked in order of my preference.


  • At Wed. Oct. 04, 04:44:00 p.m. EDT, Anonymous gotabrain said…

    One of the things we don't know is how the 8 or 9 hundred delegates who already have a buy in will vote. This just ensures that the party brass keep control over the first ballot. I have contended for weeks that Ignatieff is just too rightwing for the kids in the backroom amd will be shutout come convention time. I believe that Bob Rae is the darling of the leftwing in the party and will carry the day. Think of what would happen if a large number of noncommited delegates goes for Bob on the first ballot. Some polls already indicate that Ignatieff is a low second choice for many delegates. If Bob has a strong first ballot showing, the third or fourth ballot will bring him in as the winner.
    We also need to remember that the current liberal strategy of attacking Harper over Afghanistan will only bear fruit if a leader who opposes the Afghan war is in there. This blows Ignatieff out of the water. Pack your bags Iggy. Harvard still loves you.


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