Warren on Polls

Warren has an interesting post on polling in the Alberta election, and the current US Democratic race in Texas. He points out that polls, these days, are quite unreliable, partially due to the fact that more and more people have cell phones and are never home. (I also think it's because more people are screening their phone calls)

In talking about the Alberta election, he says people have been asking him, basically, "What happened?" All the polls were saying that "Steady Eddie" was going to have a rougher ride than he actually had. So, he makes a couple comments, and then makes the most interesting point:

"Does this mean that polling firms will go back to much-more-accurate phone-based surveys? As they wipe the metaphorical egg of their faces, yet again, I suspect they want to. But, when more and more people are using cell phones - and fewer and fewer are using residential land lines - that's easier said than done.

What does it all mean? It means more election-night surprises. To get specific, here in Ottawa, I think it means Harper is ahead by more than a lot of hacks and flaks realize.

Over and out, from our seat of government. Later."

Anyone still wonder why I'm eager to get to the polls? Maybe it's because I agree with Warren on this one.