Christian Conservative Christian "Independent"

I'm an evangelical Christian, member of the CPC, but presently & unjustly exiled to wander the political wilderness.
All opinions expressed here are solely my own.

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Interesting how they spin this poll

CanWest Global released the results of an Ipsos Reid poll with the following headline... "Liberals narrowing gap with Tories: poll". But taking a look at the analysis in the article, one very interesting point comes to light. They say the Tories are "down three percentage points, to 39%".

Excuse me? DOWN to 39%? If losing three points brings them DOWN to 39%, that means that two weeks ago when the last poll was done, they were UP at forty-two freaking percent... do you recall seeing the news headlines saying that the Tories were in solid MAJORITY TERRITORY?

Neither do I... interesting, that.

Also, this so-called "Liberals narrowing the gap", consisted of them going up one measly percentage point... UP to 29%, back to where they've been barely treading with their heads above water for some eight months now.

CanWest also reported that there is growing opposition to our Crime bills. Hey, with numbers like we've seen above, even if we're down three points, I'd be just fine going to the hustings with those numbers... since you know Dion's going to start tanking as soon as any election begins.

Other reports say that the Libs are looking to bring the House down in Feburary, before the next budget... I hope Mr. Flaherty burns some of the midnight oil, and gets the next budget out ahead of schedule. It would be easy to spin it that we're doing so early in order to help with the much needed infrastructure and assistance to the manufacturing sector we've all been hearing about lately.

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  • At Mon Nov 26, 12:05:00 a.m. EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    You got to wonder about Canwest. On one hand they feed you and on the other they have it wrapped around your throat. Sick people really. But those are good numbers and it they keep in that area for a few months then it may forebode an election in the spring. (real conservative)

  • At Mon Nov 26, 12:27:00 a.m. EST, Blogger Johnathon said…

    Canwest Global are just part of the left wing loon media.

    We all know Harper is in majority territory, however the leftist dummies try to spin it anyway they can.

    Go Harper Go.

  • At Mon Nov 26, 12:31:00 a.m. EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Haper is displaying amazing leadership, eh? Here we are almost 2 years into the most pathetic minority government of all time, and Harper hasn't put Dion out of his misery yet.

    I think it's because Harper secretly cares about Dion, and is just trying to give him a chance to learn to speak English, raise cash, develop policy and give Canadians a chance to get to know him better, just so the next election is a fair fight.

    Harper is a much better leader than Chretien, the little guy from Shawinigan, he never gave the divided right a chance to get their act together before an election.

    Here we are with the left divided into 3 or 4 parties, depending on the province, and Harper insists on giving Dion 2-3 years to get his act together. How nice!

    I really don't understand what all my friends on the left hate about your leader, I think he's one of the most considerate, patient and fair PM's ever!

    P.S. I hope the stress of leadership doesn't make Harper gain any more wight, I'd hate for his health to suffer from all the good things he's doing for the Libs, oops, I mean for Canada.

  • At Mon Nov 26, 12:42:00 a.m. EST, Blogger hunter said…

    Look at the picture they have of PM Harper. Red eyes, biting his lower lip, if they could have put his belly in there as well they would have, what, no agenda here, move along.

    Can't get into majority territory? HA! We are there, even at 39% with 4 lefty parties fighting for the leftovers, we come up the middle in lots of ridings. When they were at 42% the tune changed to 45% needed for a majority.

    Look, 10% ahead of the Liberals even before an election is called is huge. Once Canadians actually start to pay attention during an election, the opposition is toast. And they know it, that's why the Liberals are sitting on their hands.

  • At Mon Nov 26, 12:44:00 a.m. EST, Blogger Eric said…

    Quantum Liberal: Because Harper knows that the longer he is in power, the more comfortable people will become with a Conservative government.

    Besides, there's no guarantee what might happen in an election campaign. If the Grits had pulled them down earlier this year, the Shreiber stuff would have broken right in the middle of an election campaign. (Awkward eh)

    And Harper, being conservative, would rather not gamble what he has, for what he might have.

    In a word, Harper has been bluffing all along. He doesn't want an election more than anything. But it serves his purpose for Liberals to think he does and scare them into allowing his agenda through.

  • At Mon Nov 26, 01:09:00 a.m. EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Every year without a federal election saves US, the taxpayers, more than $350 MILLION dollars.

    So, yes, very considerate of the PM not to cause one for frivilous reasons. The country is being well managed and just think - 3 years without an election saves us nearly $1 BILLION.

    That's the kind of price tag the Liberals would make us pay to get back to POWER.

    Who needs an election before October 2009 - the people who pay for it don't.

    And BTW - the most important number in some of those polls is the "undecided or no comment" - notice that the media nevers promotes that one.

    In other words - it is proven that at least 20% of respondents on most polls say - none of your business when asked how they will vote.

  • At Mon Nov 26, 01:17:00 a.m. EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    By christ SO, you're absolutely right!

    I'm not sure why I didn't see the widsom of Harper waiting for a recession to hit, the death of manufacturing in the two most populous provinces, and for Harper's best buddy in the world to start a war with Iran. Stupid me, I mean 37% of Canadians think Harper is the best PM! 37%! That's like 0.5% more than who voted for him two years ago!

    "In a word, Harper has been bluffing all along. He doesn't want an election more than anything."

    SO if you really believe that, I've got a couple of acres of prime waterfront property for sale in Florida you might be interested in.


  • At Mon Nov 26, 01:21:00 a.m. EST, Blogger wilson said…

    If the Opps keep messing with the crime bills, dion may get his chance to bring down the government.
    but he won't.
    he'll cave.
    dippers will chuckle.
    After that me me me hissy fit he threw in QP, I can't wait to see PMSH have a go at him in the election debates.

    Chantel Hebert has it right..dion is a loser.

  • At Mon Nov 26, 01:27:00 a.m. EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Of course Dion is a loser, that's why Harper hasn't pulled the plug on this farce.We know that.

    And the SES, SC, and Decima polls that will follow later this week, will all be wrong by about 5-6 %. Nothing says truth and accuracy like the National Post and Ipsos-Reid.

  • At Mon Nov 26, 04:21:00 a.m. EST, Blogger Eric said…

    We've been waiting for that recession to hit for the last 6 years since 9/11. Nothing has happened yet.

    The death of the manufacturing industry, hah, it happened to a great extent under the Grit watch. Auto cities like Windsor have already been obliterated, but rest seem to be doing fine and will adapt (as all businesses do) to changing environments.

    And if you think Bush is going to get Congressional approval for a war with Iran I've got some prime ocean-front real estate in Saskatchewan I'd like to sell you. (Because selling water-front property in Florida is believable.. after all, it has a coastline)

    You know what Quantum Liberal? Don't take it from me about Harper not wanting an election, take it from Paul Wells. He was the only pundit predicting last fall that there'd be no election and 'surprise!' there's no election. And this fall? Same reasoning, same result. Why is he right? Well I dunno it could have something to do with the fact that he literally wrote a book about the guy but heck, who knows!

  • At Mon Nov 26, 08:46:00 a.m. EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    The National Post is also letting us all know that those hardworking Liberals have narrowed the gap to 10 points....Of course they are quite careful to not actually say what the numbers are-they also make mention of the poll last week that had Harper at 42% - 42%!!!! - what???????.....

    If it was the other way around, can you imagine the Headlines!!

    On another note about the liberal media - our old liberal friend Greg Weston had this to say about the ethics committee.

    "A week later, Conservatives and their media cheerleaders are all but screaming for Schreiber's extradition to Germany"

    Media Cheerleaders???? Gee must have missed that along with the results of that poll.

    I only wish that those conservative "media cheerleaders" would point out to their Liberal Cheerleading friends how blatantly they are becoming in their partisanship.

    After all, being sutle hasn't worked so you might as well hit Canadians over the head to get them to understand that they must vote Liberal!!!!

  • At Mon Nov 26, 09:54:00 a.m. EST, Blogger Ames Way said…

    I wouldn't pay so much attention to polls. They are coming out far to frequently and as a result we are getting all this bs flying about.
    The only poll that matters is the one on election day. Yes I understand that the parties use polls to help them determine when there will be an election, I am also aware that they use internal polling and can see trends rather than the polls commissioned by the media that only give you a snapshot.

  • At Mon Nov 26, 10:23:00 a.m. EST, Blogger Paul MacPhail said…

    I do remember that poll that had the CPC at 42%. However, I didn't put much stock in it because the poll that Nik Nanos had put out seemed more realistic, and SES' polling history has proven to be pretty accurate. About the headline though, if the party names were reversed, the headline probably would have read: Conservatives Gaining On Liberals So Slowly They Would Have To Speed Up Just To Stop.

  • At Mon Nov 26, 01:36:00 p.m. EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    To the Quantum liberal: first of all what is a quantum liberal? Is that like a bigger *&^$%#? Regarding Dion, he won't get his act together if he has 3 more years as leader which is fine by us. (real conservative)

  • At Mon Nov 26, 01:44:00 p.m. EST, Blogger Ted Betts said…

    do you recall seeing the news headlines saying that the Tories were in solid MAJORITY TERRITORY?

    Um... yes, many. This being only one example. Wasn't too hard to find, actually, once you take The Vast Leftwing Media Conspiracy blinders off, that is.

    Oh, what the heck, here's a few where the media spun the headlines in his favour despite what the polls actually said .

  • At Mon Nov 26, 01:58:00 p.m. EST, Blogger Christian Conservative said…

    Good argument Cerberus, but it falls appart on one point... the most recent "Tories going down" poll was front-page news... I don't recall seeing the "Tories in Majority territory" on the front page.

    (and for the record, I'll gladly correct myself if proven wrong on that)

  • At Mon Nov 26, 02:29:00 p.m. EST, Blogger Ted Betts said…

    I'm a good liberal so I have recycled all of the hard copies of my papers so, unfortunately, you'll have to take my word for it as I can't scan anything for you.

    But the Cons have flirted with this magical majority projecting number of 40% twice only and I know for certain that several Toronto papers carried it on the front page. I remember distinctly one (the Post?) carrying it on the top banner of the first page (though in that case the full article followed on the first news page inside and not on the cover).

    Trust me, the media - as a group - is no friend of the Liberal Party. It was the media that broke the Shawinigate story, Adscam story, tried their best to make Martin look awful after he became leader (though they had a lot of competition from Martin himself in this), giving Dion a hard time while simply regurgitating Harper press releases.

  • At Mon Nov 26, 08:25:00 p.m. EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Do you see the irony in your statement Cerberus?Let's chew on what you have claimed:the media is an enemy to the Libs because it published stories about the illegal activities?
    And it is a friend to the CPC because the polls showing Harper in majority were on 'the back page'?
    Uh ..yeah...we get it already.

  • At Tue Nov 27, 09:48:00 a.m. EST, Blogger Ted Betts said…


    How do you go from "no friend" to "enemy"? The claim here by CC and others is that the media is always out there trying to help the Liberal Party and bring the Conservatives down. An example cited is that the CPC "down from a majority story" made the front page and the CPC "in majority territory" did not. I've merely shown that the factual basis for the assertion was incorrect: the CPC in majority territory stories were indeed on the front page.

    I've also not asserted that the media is a friend of the CPC. I think the evidence shows they are all over the map - some strongly in favour, some strongly opposed (most of the Toronto Star), some both, and most still willing to on balance support them though not as strongly as they supported them in the last election (the Globe, the National Post).

    What is clear though is that the media is totally willing to simply regurgitate Harper press releases without critical comment.

    I'll give you a perfect example of how pliant the media has been with the Cons: in the spring of 2006 when the environment first became an issue in public opinion polls and people realized that the Cons didn't even care enough about the environment to include any plan anywhere in their 54 page election platform other than mention of a "made in Canada plan", the media dutifully and properly asked what the Conservative plans were for the environment or Kyoto. After much resistance and reluctance, the CPC announced on a Monday that they would have an announcement on the environment on the following Wednesday. That got reported on the front pages - great headlines for the Cons. Then on the Wednesday of the announcement - the papers reported that the Cons would be holding a press conference on the environment that day - more good press. Then the announcement: they announced that in the September they would announce their plan. And that was pretty much it: no follow-up, no pointed out that for 10 years they had been challenging Kyoto and yet had never come up with an alternative, had campaigned on a "made in Canada plan" but it turned out that those were just words because they had no plan. OK, points to the Cons for good manipulation of the media for good ratings; points off for the media.

    Come September, another announcement: same thing: announce that an announcement is coming and get the good press. Later that week the announcement: they would announce the details of their plans in October. No plan but what does the media report? They obligingly reported the Con claim that the Liberals had their chance and did nothing. No one follows up on why the Cons don't have a plan despite years of promises and despite specific promises in the campaign.

    etc. etc.

    With "enemies" like the media, the Conservatives don't need any friends at all.


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